Russian nuclear 'arsenal' : What we know, facts, sober assumptions.

Exact numbers of Russian nuclear warheads are not publicly known and are subject to expert estimates based on open sources, satellite monitoring, historical data, and military expert analyses.

• The highly unlikely maximum of actively deployed warheads is estimated at approximately 1,500.

• The total number of all nuclear warheads, including those in stockpiles and awaiting dismantlement, may reach up to 4,000 – 4,500 according to some sources, but this figure is very uncertain and could be lower.

• The number of warheads deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) is also estimated, often cited in the range of 1,200 – 1,600.

These estimates are based on a combination of:

• Historical data on the Soviet arsenal

• Analyses of available military sources and satellite imagery

• Information from international treaties and inspections, which do not provide a complete picture

Quality and modernization of the arsenal

• Approximately 30–40% of the arsenal is considered modernized, including new missile types such as RS-24 Yars and hypersonic systems like Avangard.

• The remainder consists of older Soviet systems, which are partially maintained but may have limited reliability and accuracy.

• Russian investments in modernization are significant, but economic sanctions and internal problems may slow the pace of renewal.

Delivery systems

• Land-based ICBMs: missiles with a range over 10,000 km, capable of carrying multiple warheads (MIRV).

• Borei-class submarines: carry Bulava missiles with multiple warheads, representing the second-strike capability.

• Strategic bombers: Tu-160 and Tu-95, capable of carrying nuclear cruise missiles.

Economic availability

• Russia’s defense budget is approximately $164.6 billion USD (2025), part of which is allocated to nuclear forces.

• Exact financial breakdown is not public, but nuclear forces remain a strategic priority despite economic difficulties.

Capability of use and early warning

• The Russian early warning system includes satellite monitoring, radar stations, and airborne patrol systems.

• Reaction time is on the order of minutes, enabling rapid decision-making for retaliatory strikes.

• However, the risk of false alarms cannot be entirely excluded.

Possibility of weapon elimination

• Air defense and missile defense systems have limited range and capacity; the ability to eliminate all launched warheads is practically zero.

• Dismantling weapons in silos is theoretically possible but requires precise intelligence and rapid action, which is logistically and politically very challenging.

NATO and response to nuclear threat

Deterrence strategy

• Maintaining own nuclear arsenals (USA, UK, France).

• Deployment of strategic forces in Europe and the Atlantic.

Air and missile defense

• Deployment of systems such as Aegis Ashore, THAAD, Patriot, and SAMP/T.

• Development and integration of new missile defense systems within NATO BMD.

Intelligence and reconnaissance

• Data sharing on military movements and missile tests among member states.

• Satellite surveillance and electronic reconnaissance.

Diplomatic tools

• Support for international arms control treaties.

• Sanctions and political pressure.

Exercises and preparedness

• Regular military exercises focused on nuclear attack response.

• Coordination of civil defense.

Conclusion

Precise data on the Russian nuclear arsenal are not publicly available and should be treated as estimates with caution. The highly unlikely maximum of actively deployed warheads is around 1,500, with a total possibly reaching up to 4,500, but these figures are approximate. The quality of the arsenal is varied, with a significant portion of older systems and partial modernization. Economic and political factors affect Russia’s ability to maintain and develop the arsenal.

NATO possesses comprehensive tools for deterrence, defense, and timely response, but elimination of all nuclear warheads is practically impossible, underscoring the importance of prevention and strategic stability.